David Carruthers, Author at Credit Benchmark Archive - Credit Benchmark

January 2023 Financial Counterpart Monitor

The Financial Counterpart Monitor from Credit Benchmark provides a unique analysis of the changing creditworthiness of financial institutions.

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World Cup 2022: The Credit Effect

With more teams playing than ever before (and a further expansion planned for 2026) the World Cup might provide some real surprises. But for a quadrennial contest that has been around for over 90 years, the list of winners is a bit repetitive. This insight compares average Sovereign Credit Consensus Rating for each of the defined Winners, Determined and Unqualified groups.

UK LDI Crisis: Pension Funds Cannot Rely on Sponsors

Pension funds are traditionally well capitalised and usually considered investment grade. Many of the companies that sponsor those funds are weaker credits, and a significant number are non-investment grade. This means that some of the largest DB pension funds in the UK cannot rely on their sponsors for cash support to meet margin calls.

COP27: Failure is Not an Option

COP27 needs to answer one question: is a declining standard of living the price of a sustainable future? Countries with weaker credit ratings will typically see more impact of climate change – with some exceptions. This report compares Sovereign credit against climate impact risk.

COVID Recovery: Running Out of Steam

The COVID outbreak led to widespread and rapid credit deterioration across multiple sectors; the subsequent recovery has been slower but has reversed much of the decline as economies have re-opened. But with war, supply shocks, inflation and rising rates, the improvement across multiple sectors has stalled and a growing number of them are turning down again.

Credit Volatility: Defaults Set to Rise, Africa and UK at Risk

Many credit portfolio managers expect default rates – currently around 2% – to be sharply higher in 2023, but the scale of the increase is still a major unknown. A useful metric to anticipate rising defaults is credit volatility – if this trends higher, credit category transition rates will increase, including transitions into default.

Q3 2022 Credit Review: Inflation and Credit Risk: Close to Boiling Point

Inflation dominated Q3 financial news, and the resulting short rate squeeze is biting while credit volatility is rising and the COVID recovery is running out of steam. Risk indicators are high in the UK, and oil and gas price volatility has brought havoc to Europe. In North America, weaker credit trends are appearing in several sectors. Believe it or not, there are some bright spots amidst this turmoil. This whitepaper elaborates on some of these trends and shows where credit could be headed next.

Business Development Companies (BDCs)

The Business Development Company sector in the US has grown steadily over the past 20 years. While BDCs allow retail investors to gain liquid exposure to portfolios of private companies, their historically high returns have been dented recently by some steep falls in valuations and – in some cases – discounts to net asset values.

Economics Nobel Prize Highlights Credit Risk as “Crucial Information”

The recent award of the 2022 Nobel memorial prize in Economics to Bernanke, Diamond and Dybvig for their work on banking regulation and liquidity highlights the connection between credit and liquidity, making the point that credit assessments are a form of market information.

US Basic Materials Credit Trends: Turning Point?

The Basic Materials Industry includes Chemicals, Metals, Mining, Forestry and Paper. Output prices for these sectors have been very volatile in the past 12 months, reflecting recent rapid structural changes in the global economy. However, US Basic Materials has shown a recent turning point.

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Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.

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