David Carruthers, Author at Credit Benchmark Archive - Credit Benchmark

US Basic Materials Credit Trends: Turning Point?

The Basic Materials Industry includes Chemicals, Metals, Mining, Forestry and Paper. Output prices for these sectors have been very volatile in the past 12 months, reflecting recent rapid structural changes in the global economy. However, US Basic Materials has shown a recent turning point.

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“Lehman Moment” for European Power Companies – Who Is at Risk?

European Governments are pledging hundreds of billions of Euros in financial aid to power generators and distributors, plus support for consumers facing massive energy price hikes. But an even larger crisis may be lurking in European energy trading, with the FT reporting sector margin requirements as high as €1trillion – vastly in excess of current sector liquidity.

Transition Matrices: Multi-Notch Downgrades

Credit Benchmark’s Transition Matrices show that post-COVID credit recovery has been strong across most credit categories, but at the same time a significant number of investment grade firms have started to be subject to multi-notch downgrades.

Credit Portfolios and Rising Defaults: Tracking Credit Risk Correlation Shifts

Credit portfolio managers face spiking interest rates and rising defaults, and contagion from one sector to another is a major concern. Consensus credit aggregates show how credit risk correlations between sectors are changing.

Q2 2022 Quarterly Review: Credit at a Turning Point?

This whitepaper from Credit Benchmark illustrates the global credit trends in the second quarter of 2022. Widening credit spreads show a major shift to a “risk-off” mindset, as supply shocks and rate hikes show no sign of abating. Corporate default rates are likely to spike, and across sectors correlations between default risk are changing. This whitepaper tracks these shifts across many otherwise unrated countries/sectors, as well as illustrating other global trends in Q2 2022.

Tech Sector Meltdown & Credit – Opportunities Emerging?

The 2022 technology stock meltdown brought widespread financial damage. Markets are repricing the new reality of geopolitical tension, inflation and scarce money. But has the selloff brought opportunities?

Credit Consensus Ratings and Risk Sharing Portfolios

Risk sharing transactions are a rapidly growing asset class, and have provided attractive returns over the past decade. As corporate credit becomes more unstable, emerging risks – and opportunities – highlight the need for comprehensive credit data for accurate transaction pricing. This paper details how Credit Consensus Ratings and Aggregates provide a detailed map of the credit market risk-reward landscape, including possible anomalies.

Sovereign Credit Risk & Food Prices

A growing list of countries have already seen Sovereign ratings slide in the past two years due to COVID costs; some now face a real risk of outright default as the war in Ukraine drives food, fertilizer and energy prices higher.

Credit Consensus Ratings & Risk Sharing

For investors in Risk Sharing products, transparency is key. This report uses Credit Consensus Ratings to compare a single bank’s view of a typical risk sharing portfolio with the broader bank peer group view of the same portfolios. This unique dataset can be used for industry trend tracking, portfolio analytics, and single name assessments.

US Energy Sector: Credit and Equity

Shifting energy sector dynamics have been a bonanza for US oil and gas companies, with prices spiking and share prices following suit. Strong share performance does not always correlate with strong credit quality, however. This analysis shows the relationship between Credit Consensus Ratings and US energy sector equity price changes in 2022.

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Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.

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