Insights

Growing commodity exports may see African sovereign default risk improve by 10%+ in next year, according to Credit Benchmark’s credit risk forecast.

UK water firms are under scrutiny after the recent default of Thames Water owner Kemble; Credit Benchmark’s consensus risk data has been flagging problems in the water sector for some time. Default risk forecasts estimate that sector risk is set to rise by at least 10% in the next year, with potential to rise by as much as 20%.

Credit Benchmark’s consensus dataset reflects historical economic upheaval through clear global credit cycles. Sector-level “leaders and laggards” within a cycle can be used in portfolio management to model transition matrix changes and provide valuable insights into the future credit profiles of sector exposures.

A new SRT case study explores how projected default rates, derived from credit consensus data, can be used to manage portfolio risk and optimise trade structures.

Global transportation firms face higher risk of default if geopolitical tensions persist. Future credit trends for global transportation firms can appear months in advance in Credit Benchmark’s credit consensus dataset.

US Commercial Real Estate continues to face challenges. According to Credit Benchmark, default risk for Industrial & Office REITs has jumped by 50% in the last 2 years and is projected to rise by at least another 30% this year.