Christa Ancri hosts Credit Benchmark’s Matt Noll and Quantexa’s Anthony Mancuso to unpack today’s credit backdrop: rising bankruptcy trends despite low charge-offs, why early-warning signals matter, and where sector pressure is most acute.
Perspectives on Risk: Credit Conditions: Early Warnings & Sector Stress
In this episode, Credit Benchmark’s Christa Ancri sits down with Matt Noll (Head of Business Development, Americas, Credit Benchmark) and Anthony Mancuso (Risk Solutions Manager, Americas, Quantexa) to discuss the state of credit and what to watch next. Despite historically low reported charge-offs, bankruptcy filings have climbed back toward post-GFC levels, reflecting tighter balance-sheet flexibility and the limits of amend-and-extend strategies.
Sector-wise, the panel highlights persistent weakness in office CRE and stresses spilling over to retail footprints; emerging fault lines in autos (from subprime borrowers to pricing and supply-chain policy); and pronounced pressure across U.S./Canadian trucking versus relatively steadier rails. With rate cuts providing only a modest cushion, the guests argue for stronger early-warning frameworks, disciplined quality-of-earnings analysis, and active portfolio monitoring. The takeaway for credit professionals: lean on data and alternative signals, but pair them with expert judgment to maintain a genuine margin of safety.