December Credit Update: Upgrades Outnumber Downgrades

Credit Benchmark has published the latest monthly credit consensus data (from November 2017), with 19 contributor banks now providing bank-sourced credit views (CBCs^*) on more than 13,000 separate legal entities over the past 12 months.

Monthly consensus upgrades and downgrades:

• 304 obligors saw improved consensus in their credit standing by at least one notch,
• 223 obligors deteriorated,
• 58 moved more than one notch,
• The frequency of upgrades and downgrades is same as in the previous month.

This compares with the previous month which showed improved consensus across 282 obligors and decreased consensus across 248.  Overall, 55 moved by more than one notch.

 Industries:

• Downgrades dominate upgrades in 5 out of 9 reported industries.
• The industries where deteriorating credit ratings outweigh upgrades are:
  • Consumer Goods with 10 upgrades and 20 downgrades,
  • Consumer Services with 13 upgrades and 15 downgrades,
  • Health Care with five upgrades and six downgrades,
  • Technology with six upgrades and seven downgrades,
  • Industrials with 24 upgrades and 26 downgrades.

• The most significant improvement of credit quality occurred in:
  • Telecommunications with three upgrades and one downgrade,
  • Basic Materials with 12 upgrades and six downgrades,
  • Utilities with nine upgrades and seven downgrades,
  • Oil & Gas with 19 upgrades and 16 downgrades

• For Financials, upgrades outnumber downgrades by 2 to 1.

*CBC = Credit Benchmark Consensus; a 21-category scale which is explicitly linked to probability of default estimates sourced from major banks. A CBC of bbb+ is broadly comparable with BBB+ from S&P and Fitch or Baa1 from Moody’s.

Disclaimer: Credit Benchmark does not solicit any action based upon this report, which is not to be construed as an invitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of a particular person who may read this report.