December Credit Update: Consensus Upgrades Outnumber Downgrades


Credit Benchmark has published the latest monthly credit consensus data (from November 2018), with 29 contributor banks. The set of bank-sourced credit views (CBCs*) now covers nearly 24,500 separate legal entities.

The monthly upgrades and downgrades overview is now based on data adjusted for changes in contributor mix.

 

Monthly consensus upgrades and downgrades:

  • 190 obligors improved their credit standing by at least one notch.
  • 163 obligors deteriorated.
  • 26 moved more than one notch.
  • The frequency of upgrades and downgrades has decreased.

Last month showed improvements across 307 obligors and deterioration across 298, with 62 moving by more than one notch.

 

Industries:

  • Upgrades dominate downgrades in five out of ten reported industries.
  • The industries showing an improvement in credit quality include:
    • Consumer Goods with 20 upgrades and 10 downgrades.
    • Oil & Gas with 19 upgrades and 10 downgrades.
    • Technology with five upgrades and two downgrades.
  • The industries showing deteriorations are:
    • Telecommunications with zero upgrades and three downgrades.
    • Consumer Services with 12 upgrades and 16 downgrades.
    • Industrials with 20 upgrades and 22 downgrades.

 

* CBC = Credit Benchmark Consensus; a 21-category classification which is explicitly linked to probability of default estimates sourced from major banks. A CBC of bbb+ is broadly comparable with BBB+ from S&P and Fitch or Baa1 from Moody’s.

Disclaimer: Credit Benchmark does not solicit any action based upon this report, which is not to be construed as an invitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of a particular person who may read this report.


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