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December 8, 2022

Shopping Around the Christmas Tree: US Consumer Services and Goods

Both US Consumer Services and Goods are currently hovering around neutral CCI scores. But the Black Friday stats so far suggest a good December, at least for consumer goods; if that momentum can be maintained we could see more positive CCIs across the Consumer sector.

November 28, 2022

World Cup 2022: The Credit Effect

With more teams playing than ever before (and a further expansion planned for 2026) the World Cup might provide some real surprises. But for a quadrennial contest that has been around for over 90 years, the list of winners is a bit repetitive. This insight compares average Sovereign Credit Consensus Rating for each of the defined Winners, Determined and Unqualified groups.

November 21, 2022

UK LDI Crisis: Pension Funds Cannot Rely on Sponsors

Pension funds are traditionally well capitalised and usually considered investment grade. Many of the companies that sponsor those funds are weaker credits, and a significant number are non-investment grade. This means that some of the largest DB pension funds in the UK cannot rely on their sponsors for cash support to meet margin calls.

November 10, 2022

COP27: Failure is Not an Option

COP27 needs to answer one question: is a declining standard of living the price of a sustainable future? Countries with weaker credit ratings will typically see more impact of climate change – with some exceptions. This report compares Sovereign credit against climate impact risk.

November 8, 2022

North American REITs: Industrial & Office Deteriorating

Global property is at a crossroads. The build-to-rent sector is strengthening as urban rents spike across the world, but rising mortgage rates are hitting starter and family home markets. In the corporate world, North American Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have improved since early 2021, but Industrial & Office REITs are showing signs of turning down as hybrid working persists.

November 1, 2022

COVID Recovery: Running Out of Steam

The COVID outbreak led to widespread and rapid credit deterioration across multiple sectors; the subsequent recovery has been slower but has reversed much of the decline as economies have re-opened. But with war, supply shocks, inflation and rising rates, the improvement across multiple sectors has stalled and a growing number of them are turning down again.

October 26, 2022

Credit Volatility: Defaults Set to Rise, Africa and UK at Risk

Many credit portfolio managers expect default rates – currently around 2% – to be sharply higher in 2023, but the scale of the increase is still a major unknown. A useful metric to anticipate rising defaults is credit volatility – if this trends higher, credit category transition rates will increase, including transitions into default.

October 26, 2022

Q3 2022 Credit Review: Inflation and Credit Risk: Close to Boiling Point

Inflation dominated Q3 financial news, and the resulting short rate squeeze is biting while credit volatility is rising and the COVID recovery is running out of steam. Risk indicators are high in the UK, and oil and gas price volatility has brought havoc to Europe. In North America, weaker credit trends are appearing in several sectors. Believe it or not, there are some bright spots amidst this turmoil. This whitepaper elaborates on some of these trends and shows where credit could be headed next.

October 17, 2022

Business Development Companies (BDCs)

The Business Development Company sector in the US has grown steadily over the past 20 years. While BDCs allow retail investors to gain liquid exposure to portfolios of private companies, their historically high returns have been dented recently by some steep falls in valuations and – in some cases – discounts to net asset values.

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Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.

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