November Credit Update: Consensus Upgrades Outnumber Downgrades

Credit Benchmark has published the latest monthly credit consensus data (from October 2018), with 29 contributor banks. The set of bank-sourced credit views (CBCs^*) now covers more than 24,000 separate legal entities.

The monthly upgrades and downgrades overview is now based on data adjusted for changes in contributor mix.

Monthly consensus upgrades and downgrades:

• 307 obligors improved their credit standing by at least one notch.
• 298 obligors deteriorated.
• 62 moved more than one notch.
• The data shows increased credit activity as the frequency of changes is larger than usual.

Last month showed improvements across 172 obligors and deterioration across 142, with 26 moving by more than one notch.

Industries:

• Upgrades dominate downgrades in six out of ten reported industries. Two industries are biased towards downgrades and one is balanced.

• The industries showing an improvement in credit quality include:
  • Basic Materials with 30 upgrades and 14 downgrades.
  • Health Care with 13 upgrades and seven downgrades.
  • Consumer Services with 36 upgrades and 22 downgrades

• The industries showing deteriorations are:
  • Telecommunications with four upgrades and eight downgrades.
  • Consumer Goods with 27 upgrades and 35 downgrades.
  • Oil & Gas with 30 upgrades and 33 downgrades.

* CBC = Credit Benchmark Consensus; a 21-category classification which is explicitly linked to probability of default estimates sourced from major banks. A CBC of bbb+ is broadly comparable with BBB+ from S&P and Fitch or Baa1 from Moody’s.

Disclaimer: Credit Benchmark does not solicit any action based upon this report, which is not to be construed as an invitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of a particular person who may read this report.