Credit Benchmark have released the November Credit Consensus Indicators (CCIs). The CCI is an index of forward-looking credit opinions for US, UK and EU Industrials based on the consensus views of over 20,000 credit analysts at 40+ of the world’s leading financial institutions.
Drawn from more than 950,000 contributed credit observations, the CCI tracks the total number of upgrades and downgrades made each month by credit analysts to chart the long-term trend in analyst sentiment for industrials. A monthly CCI score of 50 indicates neutral credit quality, with an equal number of upgrades and downgrades made over the course of a month. Scores above 50 indicate that credit quality is improving. Scores below 50 indicate that credit quality is deteriorating.
EU Industrial firms continue their run of positive credit movement, with a 14th month of improvement. UK Industrial firms have also remained in the green, though showing weaker scores than their EU counterparts. US Industrial firms struggle to maintain a foothold on credit improvement, showing neutrality this month.
UK Industrials: Little Month-on-Month Change
Another month of mild positivity for UK Industrial firms, with a fifth consecutive instance of a CCI score above 50.
The UK Industrials CCI score is 50.7 this month, a positive reading but little month-on-month change from 50.6 last month.
The UK Trade Secretary has set out a plan to future-proof the UK economy by investing in cutting-edge green technology, protecting long-term energy security and creating thousands of jobs in industries of the future.
EU Industrials: Modest Improvement Continues
EU Industrial firms have registered another positive CCI for this month, which is the fourteenth consecutive instance of a positive score.
Whilst the trend recently dipped close to neutral, the EU Industrials CCI score is 52.8 this month, a third healthy CCI score in a row.
After decreases in 2019 and 2020, EU rail freight transport performance saw some recovery in 2021, with rail freight transport up 8.7% compared with 2020, reaching almost the high level of 2018 – a recent study shows.
US Industrials: Neutral
Consensus opinion on credit quality for US Industrial firms has struggled to remain in positive territory this month.
The US Industrials CCI score this month is 50, suggesting neutral credit quality.
The US can’t match China’s industrial heft; their attempt at an industrial policy to build electric vehicles and batteries has, once again, fallen flat.
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