
US Tariffs and Global Default Risk: 9 Months On
Equity markets adapted quickly to US tariffs, but Credit Benchmark consensus data shows material and uneven shifts in global default risk.

Equity markets adapted quickly to US tariffs, but Credit Benchmark consensus data shows material and uneven shifts in global default risk.

Across hundreds of conversations with banks, insurers, asset managers, and other non-bank financial institutions, one theme dominates: credit risk management is under sustained pressure.

This 10-year analysis highlights how structural shifts in global trade, monetary policy, and capital flows have reshaped credit quality.

Bank sentiment about the creditworthiness of their borrowers worsened in recent months after improvement earlier this year, according to Credit Benchmark’s new Credit Risk Index (CRI).

Canadian credit risk remains elevated but shows early signs of moderation. Persistent weakness in key sectors and provinces underscores the importance of granular credit monitoring.

Bank sentiment about the creditworthiness of their borrowers worsened in recent months after improvement earlier this year, according to Credit Benchmark’s new Credit Risk Index (CRI).

Credit Benchmark’s US Default Risk Regional Trends analysis highlights emerging pressures and resilience across the American economy.

As insurance companies operate in an increasingly volatile environment, where do the credit risks lie?

Do the world’s largest banks move their internal credit ratings quicker as new events unfold, or are smaller regional bank more nimble with their credit assessments?

Credit risk is on the move, and not where you’d expect. Analysis of UK regional default risk shows sharp divergence across regions, sectors, and credit categories post-Covid.
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