September Credit Update: Consensus Upgrades Outnumber Downgrades


Credit Benchmark has published the latest monthly credit consensus data (from August 2018) from 27 contributor banks. The set of bank-sourced credit views (CBCs*) now covers more than 22,000 separate legal entities.

The monthly upgrades and downgrades overview is now based on data adjusted for changes in contributor mix.

 

Monthly consensus upgrades and downgrades:

  • 204 obligors improved their credit standing by at least one notch.
  • 163 obligors deteriorated by at least one notch.
  • 50 moved more than one notch.
  • The frequency and the size of upgrades and downgrades has decreased.

Last month showed improvements across 283 obligors and deterioration across 283, with 80 moving by more than one notch.

 

Industries:

  • Upgrades dominate downgrades in five out of ten reported industries, one industry is biased towards downgrades and four are balanced.
  • The industries showing an improvement in credit quality include:
    • Oil & Gas with 17 upgrades and four downgrades.
    • Industrials with 45 upgrades and 29 downgrades.
    • Basic Materials with 11 upgrades and seven downgrades.
    • Technology with 11 upgrades and seven downgrades.
  • The industry showing deterioration is:
    • Health Care with no upgrades and three downgrades.

 

* CBC = Credit Benchmark Consensus; a 21-category classification which is explicitly linked to probability of default estimates sourced from major banks. A CBC of bbb+ is broadly comparable with BBB+ from S&P and Fitch or Baa1 from Moody’s.

Disclaimer: Credit Benchmark does not solicit any action based upon this report, which is not to be construed as an invitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of a particular person who may read this report.


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