Geographic Credit Risk
Assessing and monitoring geographic credit risk is an important part of managing credit risk across a portfolio. ACCESS REPORTS Introduction Banks contributing their internal ratings
April 2, 2024
Assessing and monitoring geographic credit risk is an important part of managing credit risk across a portfolio. ACCESS REPORTS Introduction Banks contributing their internal ratings
A new SRT case study explores how projected default rates, derived from credit consensus data, can be used to manage portfolio risk and optimise trade structures.
Global transportation firms face higher risk of default if geopolitical tensions persist. Future credit trends for global transportation firms can appear months in advance in Credit Benchmark’s credit consensus dataset.
Default rates for US and UK Speculative Grade bonds are expected to rise each quarter to a peak in Q3 2024. This whitepaper expands on our recent US Default Rate Forecast, with the addition of UK Corporate default projections.
Default rates for US Speculative Grade bonds and Leveraged Loans are rising and expected to peak in Q2 2024. This whitepaper examines projected credit default rates for US issuers based on credit consensus data from global banks.
Commercial real estate investors and lenders are facing mounting losses if societal habits have changed for good in a post-COVID world, writes Sinead Cruise, Lucy Raitano and Lewis Jackson for Reuters, citing research from Credit Benchmark.
Investors in credit portfolios make extensive use of credit agency ratings and market-driven risk models. But some segments are faced with less visibility and a lack of public ratings, while credit portfolio management models are only as good as the credit risk data available to them. This paper reviews a data-driven framework for portfolio risk analysis and discusses practical applications of consensus credit risk estimates.
Bail-in bonds are a powerful extra prop for bank balance sheets in times of turmoil: AT1 bond issuers showed faster post-COVID credit recovery than most Global Systematically Important Banks, and the gap continues to widen.
With default risks expected to rise in 2023, correlations between those risks are increasingly important for credit portfolio management. Exposures to different sectors – that normally diversify the portfolio – may show a simultaneous increase in risk during difficult economic conditions. This paper shows how Consensus credit data can be used to estimate credit correlations between regions, countries, industries, and sectors.
Inflation dominated Q3 financial news, and the resulting short rate squeeze is biting while credit volatility is rising and the COVID recovery is running out of steam. Risk indicators are high in the UK, and oil and gas price volatility has brought havoc to Europe. In North America, weaker credit trends are appearing in several sectors. Believe it or not, there are some bright spots amidst this turmoil. This whitepaper elaborates on some of these trends and shows where credit could be headed next.
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