Default risk for High Yield Corporates and Financials forecast to rise across all G7 + China economies in 2025 with exception of the US, according to Credit Benchmark’s Default Risk Outlook.
Credit Benchmark’s 2025 US Default Risk Outlook covers 12 US Industries. The report predicts US default risks to remain stable over the next 12 months as rate cuts cushion the impact of a slowing economy, but some industries face challenges.
Credit rating transition matrices are key components in default models and credit portfolio management, but calibration can be a challenge. Credit Benchmark’s extensive credit cycle data can be used in transition matrices to derive robust, time-varying and industry-specific credit migration probabilities.
London, 24 July 2024 – Credit Benchmark, a leading provider of credit risk data and analytics, today said that it predicts default risk for UK
Credit Benchmark’s new 2024/25 Default Risk Outlook for UK Industries predicts UK default risks to plateau in next 12 months; Basic Materials, Telecoms and Technology predicted to show >10% increase in default risk by Q2 2025.
A credit rating transition matrix shows, for a group of companies, the proportion that migrate from one credit rating category to another over a set time period. For example it could show the proportion of firms with rating AA that migrate to AAA, A, BBB, BB, B and C, plus those that remain in the AA rating category, in the course of a single year. For some use cases, it also includes a Default column to show the proportion of firms that default.
Credit Benchmark says default risk will peak late-2024 for most EU industries according to new EU Default Risk Outlook.
Credit Benchmark’s new 2024/25 Default Risk Outlook for EU Industries predicts default risk will peak late-2024 for most EU industries, but Tech, Telecoms, Oil & Gas and Utilities could rise significantly
Credit Benchmark publishes 2024 Default Risk Outlook for US industries, predicting mid-year peak in default risks followed by credit recovery
Credit default risk in the US is set to peak by mid-2024 before beginning to decline in most sectors, with leveraged loans showing the highest projected default rate compared to 12 other US sectors, writes William Bennett-Lynch and Grant Murgatroyd for Preqin, citing Credit Benchmark’s 2024 Default Risk Outlook.
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Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.
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