Insights

The March Monthly Credit Outlook looks at recent credit trends and highlights seen in the consensus dataset. This month, stubborn inflation risks steeper global credit deterioration.

Global Corporates have returned to a negative credit balance, ending their 19-month positive run. Global Financials have now had four months without a positive credit balance. This negative shift is being driven by a number of Global Sectors.

Renewable energy is at the centre of efforts to tackle climate change, but there have been setbacks to growth. 80%+ of energy demand is still met by fossil fuels, with fossil fuel companies reporting record profits as global energy prices spike. In the past two years, renewable credit risk has deteriorated and traditional energy has improved. However, there are some signs that the credit tide may be turning.

The February Monthly Credit Outlook looks at recent credit trends and highlights seen in the consensus dataset. This month, credit risk is elevated but some positive surprises may be possible.

3G has been a major legacy network overhead and consumer of spectrum bandwidth in the US. But as 5G moves into high gear the Big 3 wireless carriers needed to reallocate capacity to fully support the 5G network, and free up resource for the development of 6G and beyond. With the 3G burden removed, the sector’s Big 3 are better placed to invest in future technologies with less strain on balance sheets.

Both US Consumer Services and Goods are currently hovering around neutral CCI scores. But the Black Friday stats so far suggest a good December, at least for consumer goods; if that momentum can be maintained we could see more positive CCIs across the Consumer sector.