Insights

An effective COVID vaccine may be in sight, and some sectors could see major improvements in their credit quality after the major financial damage caused by the virus. But which sectors have held up well, and which have been heading towards serious trouble?

Financials may be heading for more credit strain as the Real Estate sector transmits problems on Main Street into problems for Wall Street.

Leveraged Loans continue to divide investor opinion. Values declined as part of the High Yield rout earlier this year, but they have been slower to recover. Consensus credit trends suggest that some of the bbb and bbb- CLO issuers may be in for a bumpy ride.

Global airlines face a battle for their survival, and equity indexes reflect recent volatility. However, any temporary rallying in airline stocks is at odds with the relentless decline seen in credit risk consensus data.

How far do equity market movements reflect credit developments during the COVID crisis?

After six months of market volatility, credit spreads have coincided with the much slower ascent of Consensus credit risk, suggesting the latter is a calmer indication of future credit market movement.