2024/25 Default Risk Outlook: UK Industries
Credit Benchmark’s new 2024/25 Default Risk Outlook for UK Industries predicts UK default risks to plateau in next 12 months; Basic Materials, Telecoms and Technology predicted to show >10% increase in default risk by Q2 2025.
2024/25 Default Risk Outlook: EU Industries
Credit Benchmark’s new 2024/25 Default Risk Outlook for EU Industries predicts default risk will peak late-2024 for most EU industries, but Tech, Telecoms, Oil & Gas and Utilities could rise significantly
2024 Default Risk Outlook: US Industries
Credit Benchmark’s new 2024 Default Risk Outlook covers 13 US Industries. The report predicts default risks to peak by mid-2024 for most industries, followed by credit recovery in H2 barring escalation in geopolitical risks.
COP28: Climate Change Winners and Losers in the Default Risk Landscape
This whitepaper reviews the distribution, dynamics and trends of default risk for various countries, industries and sectors that are positively or negatively affected by climate change.
“Basel Endgame”: Fixed Weight Fault Lines?
This whitepaper uses default risk estimates from global banks to highlight potential fault lines embedded in the new Basel “Endgame” proposals.
Default Rate Forecast for Q3 2024: US and UK Speculative Grade Corporates
Default rates for US and UK Speculative Grade bonds are expected to rise each quarter to a peak in Q3 2024. This whitepaper expands on our recent US Default Rate Forecast, with the addition of UK Corporate default projections.
Default Rate Forecast 2023/24: US Speculative Grade Borrowers and US Leveraged Loans
Default rates for US Speculative Grade bonds and Leveraged Loans are rising and expected to peak in Q2 2024. This whitepaper examines projected credit default rates for US issuers based on credit consensus data from global banks.
Credit Portfolio Risk: Consensus Data Fills in the Blanks
Investors in credit portfolios make extensive use of credit agency ratings and market-driven risk models. But some segments are faced with less visibility and a lack of public ratings, while credit portfolio management models are only as good as the credit risk data available to them. This paper reviews a data-driven framework for portfolio risk analysis and discusses practical applications of consensus credit risk estimates.
Credit Correlations: Avoiding Unnecessary Risks
With default risks expected to rise in 2023, correlations between those risks are increasingly important for credit portfolio management. Exposures to different sectors – that normally diversify the portfolio – may show a simultaneous increase in risk during difficult economic conditions. This paper shows how Consensus credit data can be used to estimate credit correlations between regions, countries, industries, and sectors.
Credit Consensus Ratings and Risk Sharing Portfolios
Risk sharing transactions are a rapidly growing asset class, and have provided attractive returns over the past decade. As corporate credit becomes more unstable, emerging risks – and opportunities – highlight the need for comprehensive credit data for accurate transaction pricing. This paper details how Credit Consensus Ratings and Aggregates provide a detailed map of the credit market risk-reward landscape, including possible anomalies.
