Consensus PD data shows Canadian credit risk rising but stabilising — with tariff stress hitting consumer and industrial sectors hardest, and HY deteriorating far faster than IG across provinces.

The Middle East conflict is once again exposing the fragility of global supply chains. As with Covid and Ukraine, the consequences are unlikely to be immediate – but they will spread across sectors in ways that are difficult to predict.

The energy shock of 2026 could become a bigger problem for credit markets than the shock of 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Equity markets adapted quickly to US tariffs, but Credit Benchmark consensus data shows material and uneven shifts in global default risk.

Across hundreds of conversations with banks, insurers, asset managers, and other non-bank financial institutions, one theme dominates: credit risk management is under sustained pressure.

This 10-year analysis highlights how structural shifts in global trade, monetary policy, and capital flows have reshaped credit quality.

Bank sentiment about the creditworthiness of their borrowers worsened in recent months after improvement earlier this year, according to Credit Benchmark’s new Credit Risk Index (CRI).

Canadian credit risk remains elevated but shows early signs of moderation. Persistent weakness in key sectors and provinces underscores the importance of granular credit monitoring.

Bank sentiment about the creditworthiness of their borrowers worsened in recent months after improvement earlier this year, according to Credit Benchmark’s new Credit Risk Index (CRI).

Credit Benchmark’s US Default Risk Regional Trends analysis highlights emerging pressures and resilience across the American economy.