Credit Spotlight on African Sovereign Ratings
Growing commodity exports may see African sovereign default risk improve by 10%+ in next year, according to Credit Benchmark’s credit risk forecast.
June 27, 2024
Growing commodity exports may see African sovereign default risk improve by 10%+ in next year, according to Credit Benchmark’s credit risk forecast.
UK water firms are under scrutiny after the recent default of Thames Water owner Kemble; Credit Benchmark’s consensus risk data has been flagging problems in the water sector for some time. Default risk forecasts estimate that sector risk is set to rise by at least 10% in the next year, with potential to rise by as much as 20%.
US Commercial Real Estate continues to face challenges. According to Credit Benchmark, default risk for Industrial & Office REITs has jumped by 50% in the last 2 years and is projected to rise by at least another 30% this year.
This whitepaper uses default risk estimates from global banks to highlight potential fault lines embedded in the new Basel “Endgame” proposals.
Recent bank failures and mergers have uncovered transatlantic tensions in the global banking sector. This data at a glance looks at US and EU Banks sectors. Average default risk for US Banks deteriorated for much of H2 2022 ahead of recent volatility. EU Banks default risk has been steadily improving.
This whitepaper from Credit Benchmark illustrates the global credit trends in the second quarter of 2022. Widening credit spreads show a major shift to a “risk-off” mindset, as supply shocks and rate hikes show no sign of abating. Corporate default rates are likely to spike, and across sectors correlations between default risk are changing. This whitepaper tracks these shifts across many otherwise unrated countries/sectors, as well as illustrating other global trends in Q2 2022.
A report from the Bank Policy Institute describes how Credit Benchmark data can be a tool in evaluating default risk for loans.
Default risk for US Large Oil & Gas firms remains far higher than default risk for comparative UK and EU firms.
Default risk for US Large Oil & Gas firms remains far higher than default risk for comparative UK and EU firms.
The biggest challenge credit practitioners face when operationalizing IFRS 9 into an auditable ECL model is typically the input that carries the most weight: PDs.
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