Leverage Loans: Morningstar LSTA and Issuer Consensus Credit Index
After a stellar performance over the past 12 months, the Leveraged Loan total return index is diverging from its respective credit indices.
US Commercial Real Estate
Warning signs continue to flash in US Commercial Real Estate, with Industrial & Office sectors worst affected by the persistence of hybrid working. However, Credit Benchmark data shows various US REITs currently with a positive credit outlook.
Sovereign, Financial and Corporate Default Risks
Latest Credit Benchmark data shows that the credit rating of a country’s financial system is heavily influenced by that of the Sovereign, and, in countries with the strongest credit, the Financial sector is stronger than the Corporate sector.
AI: Disruption Now, Efficiency Later
Is AI all promise, no profit? The Economist suggests equity markets are unconvinced as to the immediate value of AI tech. In credit terms, AI-focused firms are outperforming other Global Tech firms; keeping pace with Global Corporates.
Consensus Credit Ratings, CDS and CVAs
Consensus credit data can fill CDS market gaps for CVA calculations. This insight links real-world PDs to “Synthetic CDS” estimates for unrated, private counterparts.
Data at a Glance: US and EU Banks
Recent bank failures and mergers have uncovered transatlantic tensions in the global banking sector. This data at a glance looks at US and EU Banks sectors. Average default risk for US Banks deteriorated for much of H2 2022 ahead of recent volatility. EU Banks default risk has been steadily improving.
AT1 Bonds: Investor Risk Means Stronger Banks
Bail-in bonds are a powerful extra prop for bank balance sheets in times of turmoil: AT1 bond issuers showed faster post-COVID credit recovery than most Global Systematically Important Banks, and the gap continues to widen.
After SVB: What’s the Next Shoe to Drop?
The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has raised questions as to what warning signs were missed. While this may have been a black swan event, bank credit warning signs have been flashing in consensus credit data for the past few months.
EU Capital Rules to Increase Buyside Trading Costs
New EU capital rules may lead to a fivefold increase in buyside trading costs, potentially rendering this activity unprofitable. With the risk looming of a less vibrant European capital market, it is necessary for the industry, policy makers and regulators to work collectively on appropriate solutions to ensure European savers are not financially penalised.
