November Credit Update: Downgrades And Upgrades Balanced

Credit Benchmark has published the latest monthly credit consensus data (from October 2017), with 18 contributor banks now providing bank-sourced credit views (CBCs*) on more than 13,000 separate legal entities over the past 12 months.

Monthly consensus upgrades and downgrades:

• 282 obligors saw improved consensus in their credit standing by at least one notch
• 248 obligors deteriorated
• 55 moved more than one notch
• Compared with the previous month, downgrades and upgrades are less frequent

This compares with the previous month which showed improved consensus across 320 obligors and decreased consensus across 291.  Overall, 76 moved by more than one notch.

Industries:

• Upgrades dominate downgrades in 4 out of 9 reported industries.
• The industries where improving credit ratings out-weigh downgrades are:
  • Basic Materials with 15 upgrades and six downgrades
  • Utilities with 25 upgrades and 15 downgrades
  • Industrials with 34 upgrades and 22 downgrades
  • Technology with nine upgrades and eight downgrades

• The most significant deterioration of credit quality occurred in:
  • Telecommunications with two upgrade and seven downgrades,
  • Consumer Services with 13 upgrades and 24 downgrades,
  • Health Care with 11 upgrades and 15 downgrades,
  • Oil & Gas with 19 upgrades and 20 downgrades

• Consumer Goods shows a balance with 17 upgrades and downgrades.
• For Financials, upgrades outnumber downgrades by 5 to 4.

*CBC = Credit Benchmark Consensus; a 21-category scale which is explicitly linked to probability of default estimates sourced from major banks. A CBC of bbb+ is broadly comparable with BBB+ from S&P and Fitch or Baa1 from Moody’s.

Disclaimer: Credit Benchmark does not solicit any action based upon this report, which is not to be construed as an invitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of a particular person who may read this report.