October Credit Update: Downgrades And Upgrades Balanced

Credit Benchmark has published the latest monthly credit consensus data (from September 2017), with 18 contributor banks now providing bank-sourced credit views (CBCs*) on almost 13,000 separate legal entities over the past 12 months.

Monthly consensus upgrades and downgrades:

• 320 obligors saw improved consensus in their credit standing by at least one notch,
• 291 obligors deteriorated,
• 76 moved more than one notch,
• compared with the previous month, downgrades and upgrades are balanced and CBC changes are less frequent.

This compares with the previous month which showed improved consensus across 426 obligors and decreased consensus across 872. Amongst those obligors that saw movement, 197 moved by more than one notch.

Industries:

• Downgrades dominate upgrades in 5 out of 9 reported industries.
• The most significant deterioration of credit quality occurred in Telecommunications with one upgrade and four downgrades,
  • Health Care with 11 upgrades and 17 downgrades,
  • Consumer Goods with 17 upgrades and 20 downgrades,
  • Technology with nine upgrades and ten downgrades,
  • and Industrials with 29 upgrades and 31 downgrades.
• The industries with improving credit ratings out-weighting downgrades are Basic Materials with 20 upgrades and eight downgrades,
  • Consumer Services with 36 upgrades and 18 downgrades,
  • Utilities with 24 upgrades and 15 downgrades,
  • Oil & Gas with 22 upgrades and 20 downgrades.
• The number of downgrades and upgrades in Financials is balanced.

*CBC = Credit Benchmark Consensus; a 21-category scale which is explicitly linked to probability of default estimates sourced from major banks. A CBC of bbb+ is broadly comparable with BBB+ from S&P and Fitch or Baa1 from Moody’s.

Disclaimer: Credit Benchmark does not solicit any action based upon this report, which is not to be construed as an invitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of a particular person who may read this report.