Whitepapers

2024 Default Risk Outlook: US Industries

Credit Benchmark's new 2024 Default Risk Outlook covers 13 US Industries. The report predicts default risks to peak by mid-2024 for most industries, followed by credit recovery in H2 barring escalation in geopolitical risks.

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November 21, 2023

COP28: Climate Change Winners and Losers in the Default Risk Landscape

This whitepaper reviews the distribution, dynamics and trends of default risk for various countries, industries and sectors that are positively or negatively affected by climate change.

November 9, 2023

“Basel Endgame”: Fixed Weight Fault Lines?

This whitepaper uses default risk estimates from global banks to highlight potential fault lines embedded in the new Basel “Endgame” proposals.

October 20, 2023

Default Rate Forecast for Q3 2024: US and UK Speculative Grade Corporates

Default rates for US and UK Speculative Grade bonds are expected to rise each quarter to a peak in Q3 2024. This whitepaper expands on our recent US Default Rate Forecast, with the addition of UK Corporate default projections.

August 16, 2023

Default Rate Forecast 2023/24: US Speculative Grade Borrowers and US Leveraged Loans

Default rates for US Speculative Grade bonds and Leveraged Loans are rising and expected to peak in Q2 2024. This whitepaper examines projected credit default rates for US issuers based on credit consensus data from global banks.

March 23, 2023

Credit Portfolio Risk: Consensus Data Fills in the Blanks

Investors in credit portfolios make extensive use of credit agency ratings and market-driven risk models. But some segments are faced with less visibility and a lack of public ratings, while credit portfolio management models are only as good as the credit risk data available to them. This paper reviews a data-driven framework for portfolio risk analysis and discusses practical applications of consensus credit risk estimates.

January 9, 2023

Credit Correlations: Avoiding Unnecessary Risks

With default risks expected to rise in 2023, correlations between those risks are increasingly important for credit portfolio management. Exposures to different sectors – that normally diversify the portfolio – may show a simultaneous increase in risk during difficult economic conditions. This paper shows how Consensus credit data can be used to estimate credit correlations between regions, countries, industries, and sectors.

July 5, 2022

Credit Consensus Ratings and Risk Sharing Portfolios

Risk sharing transactions are a rapidly growing asset class, and have provided attractive returns over the past decade. As corporate credit becomes more unstable, emerging risks – and opportunities – highlight the need for comprehensive credit data for accurate transaction pricing. This paper details how Credit Consensus Ratings and Aggregates provide a detailed map of the credit market risk-reward landscape, including possible anomalies.

June 14, 2022

Something Better Change: Securities Lending Indemnification is Unsustainable in Its Current Form

In this paper Mark Faulkner reflects on the securities finance industry from a personal perspective and explores some of the challenges associated with Securities Lending Indemnification. The paper aims to explain the confluence of events behind these problems, assess their impact upon the market structure and make some suggestions to help mitigate the issues moving forward.

January 26, 2022

Another COVID Year: Credit Trends in 2021

2021 was another year dominated by COVID, but will hopefully mark the beginning of the end for the pandemic. This report shows the key credit trends that emerged in 2021 and examines which geographies, industries and sectors proved resilient to the widespread deterioration brought about by COVID in 2020 – and which have a more difficult road ahead.

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Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.

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